Week 4: Jaguars (+2.5) vs. Bengals

By: Tara Austin | Posted: September 27, 2012

Jaguars +2.5

MJD is the rare player who can holdout for most of training camp and still come in and produce.  He gets to go against a Bengals defense that ranks 31st in the NFL against the rush this week.  I expect big numbers from him and I expect the Jags to control the clock by keeping the ball on the ground most of the day.  Cincinnati is 0-7-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last 9 games v. the AFC.  

Taking a home underdog is typically considered a “sharp” play, and the “sharp” bettors do appear to be on Jacksonville this week.  In the world of sports gambling, “sharp” bettors are people that most believe know what they are doing.  A “square” bettor is someone that most believe does not know that they are doing.  

Taking a compilation of online and brick and mortar sports books, Pregame.com’s Sportsbook Spy shows that 17,514 bets have been placed on this game so far this week. 92% of those bets have been on Cincinnati.  Despite this, the line has not budged.  Normally, with that many bets on the Bengals, you would expect the line to move to 3.  When it doesn’t we assume that is because there is actually an even amount of money on both sides, which means the big bets are on the Jags.  The big bets are typically from what we consider “sharp” bettors.  So, if we lose and go 0-4 for the season, you can take solace in knowing that we were on the “sharp” side

Tara Austin is a lawyer by trade, but moonlights as an amateur sports handicapper, specializing in NFL, college football and golf.  She is an integral part of the community at Pregame.com.  She is also rabid Carolina Gamecock and Dallas Cowboy fan; do not trust any sports betting advice given on games involving those two teams, as it is sure to be tainted by loyalty and wishful thinking.

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